New analysis of eCommerce spending from Reward, reveals how shopper behaviours observed during Peak Season trading in Black Friday and Christmas 2025 are set to shape retail performance in the year ahead.
Based on insight from 1.4 billion anonymised transactions across 4,000 retailers, online spend accounted for 44 per cent of total card spend between October and December 2025, increasing its share year-on-year by one percentage point.
However, this growth occurred without an increase in overall online spending. Instead, transaction volumes rose 3.1 per cent, showing that peak performance is increasingly driven by shoppers buying more often rather than spending more each time. This shift was reflected by a 2.3 per cent drop in average online basket value year-on-year, and it was 5.8 per cent lower during peak season than at other times of the year.
As cost pressures persist and promotions stretch across longer trading periods, this points to a shift away from bigger baskets towards more frequent, repeat purchases – challenging traditional views of what drives peak retail success.
As online continues to win share during peak trading, the insight points to an important window for retailers in the months ahead. Only 27 per cent of online customers were active earlier in the year (January- October), compared with 36 per cent for in-store retailers, highlighting structurally weaker repeat behaviour online. However, returning online customers are significantly more valuable, spending 28 per cent more than those acquired during the Christmas period.
With peak demand increasingly pulled forward, the rest of the year is a key to setting foundation to build loyalty and retention in which loyalty and retention are likely to play a larger role, influencing how effectively online retailers enter the next peak season with a higher-value, more engaged customer base.
Paul Jones, SVP of Data & Insights at Reward, comments: “What we’re seeing is a clear shift in how consumers approach peak season spend, and it’s one that won’t reset after Christmas. Online growth is increasingly being driven by shoppers buying earlier and returning more often, rather than by bigger one-off splurges. As we move through 2026, retailers that place greater focus on retention – alongside timing and convenience – rather than relying solely on short-term peak moments, will be best placed to win.”
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