The impact of the Iran war has finally caught up with retail sales, according to Parcelhero. The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) retail sales bulletin reveals sales volumes fell by 1.3 per cent in April against March.
Parcelhero’s Head of Consumer Research, David Jinks M.I.L.T., says: ‘The Iran conflict didn’t seem to make a dent on retail sales back in March, when sales volumes rose by 0.6 per cent and the value of online sales climbed 2.4 per cent. However, it hit home in April. The ONS says lower demand, variable weather and motorists conserving fuel all had an impact.
‘eCommerce had a particularly lacklustre April. Non-store retailers (the ONS category which is predominantly online sellers) reported their sales volumes – the amount we all bought – were down by 2 per cent against the previous month. Similarly, the amount we all spent online also fell by 2.3 per cent against March.
‘However, month-on-month comparisons are notoriously volatile. The ONS prefers to look at the three-month pattern. These figures offered better news and revealed some silver linings among April’s clouds. The quantity of goods bought (volume) is estimated to have risen by 0.5 per cent in the three months to April 2026, compared with the three months to January 2026. eCommerce performed well over this three-month period. The amount spent online rose by 2.2 per cent when comparing the three months to April 2026 with the three months to January 2026.
‘More silver linings were that online sales values rose by 6.6 per cent year-on-year (YOY), comparing April 2026 with April 2025. Looking at that key three-month indicator, the news was even more positive, with online sales values rising by 9.3 per cent YOY when comparing the same three-month period to 2025.
‘As we move towards the summer, forecasting how retail will perform in the coming months is a tough call. To a certain extent, it all depends on international events and their impacts on the wider UK economy. This month there have been mixed signals, with the rate of inflation surprisingly falling to 2.8 per cent and the Government cutting VAT on some summer attractions in response to a reported decline in consumer confidence. May’s retail sales results will be eagerly anticipated.’
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