Almost half of online shoppers already know what they intend to buy during major shopping events such as Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, suggesting retailers should place greater emphasis on anticipating existing demand rather than relying on promotions and digital channels to generate additional purchases.
Online YouGov research of over 2000 UK adults who shop online, commissioned by retail fulfilment specialist Paxon, found that 47 per cent mainly purchase products they had already planned to buy during these events.
The research also points to the limited influence of social media and AI recommendations on additional purchases. Less than one in ten (9 per cent) shoppers say social media encourages them to add extra items to their basket, while only 5 per cent say AI recommendations encourage them to consider different products. Similarly, only 5 per cent say both AI and social media regularly introduce them to products they had not intended to purchase.
Meanwhile, more than one in five (21 per cent) say neither AI nor social media significantly influences their shopping decisions. The findings suggest retailers need to look beyond promotional activity and focus on understanding what customers are already considering buying.
Andrew Scanlon, Head of Sales and Marketing at Paxon, said: “Black Friday has traditionally been seen as an opportunity to generate demand through discounts and promotions. However, our research suggests many shoppers have already identified the products they want before the sales begin.
“AI-powered shopping tools could provide an additional insight into consumer interests, but retailers need to bring these signals together with search activity, website engagement, wish lists and marketplace data to build a clearer picture of likely demand ahead of peak.
“Understanding what customers are considering buying can help retailers make better-informed decisions about stock availability, inventory positioning and fulfilment capacity. The challenge is turning these early signals of interest into practical planning, so businesses are ready to meet demand when it materialises.”
The need for accurate, near real-time demand signals becomes particularly important during ‘Stockurday’ – the operational crunch point on the Saturday between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Retailers must manage the fulfilment and dispatch of Black Friday orders while simultaneously receiving, allocating and positioning inventory ahead of the next wave of Cyber Monday demand.
Scanlon added: “Stockurday is a critical test of how effectively retailers can balance incoming stock with outgoing orders. Even relatively small efficiency gains during picking and packing can add up to hours of additional throughput across a busy warehouse, helping businesses avoid bottlenecks and maintain on-time delivery performance.
“Peak season performance will increasingly depend on how well retailers connect early indicators of shopper intent with their operational planning. By bringing demand signals together with inventory and fulfilment data, businesses can make better-informed decisions about stock, people and capacity, putting them in a stronger position to manage sales surges.”
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