UK retail spending is forecast to rise 4.5 per cent year on year over the festive season, according to the Mastercard Economics Institute’s annual holiday forecast. Online spending is expected to grow 9.3 per cent, more than twice the overall rate.
The forecast compares 1 November to 26 December 2026 with the same period in 2025. It excludes cars and fuel, is based on Mastercard SpendingPulse data covering in-store and online sales across all payment types, including cash, and is not adjusted for inflation.
How the UK compares
The UK shares the highest total growth forecast with Czechia among the nine European markets covered. The average across all nine is 3.4 per cent. Forecasts include:
- UK: total up 4.5 per cent, online up 9.3 per cent
- Spain: total up 4.0 per cent, online up 11.2 per cent
- France: total up 3.1 per cent, online up 5.0 per cent
- Germany: total up 2.5 per cent, online up 4.7 per cent
Shopping later in the evening
The share of UK online spending made after 8pm rose from 12 per cent in 2019 to 15 per cent in January to September 2025. During the holiday season it rises to 17 per cent.
AI subscribers
Mastercard compared the spending of people who pay for AI tools with those who do not. Across Europe, AI subscribers put more of their fashion, beauty and home furnishings spending into Black Friday weekend and were more likely to buy at the last minute, with jewellery a popular late purchase in the UK, Italy and Czechia. Non-subscribers spread their spending more evenly across the season.
Natalia Lechmanova, chief economist for Europe at the Mastercard Economics Institute, said the season reflected consumers who are resilient and increasingly digital, shopping online at all hours and using AI to help with holiday purchases.
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