During the next five years, online retail will achieve a 10
percent compound annual growth rate in the US, and an 11 percent
rate within the largest European Union nations. According to
Forrester’s Western European Online Forecast, 2009-2014, online
retail will grow to $249 billion (£164.3 billion) by 2014 in
the States, whilst in the EU, online retail will hit €114
billion (£103.6 billion, $157 billion).
In the US, Forrester predicts that online shopping will account
for 8 percent of total retail sales by 2014. Further, it
estimates that in five years’ time, 53 percent of total retail
sales in the US will be “influenced by” ecommerce as
consumers increasingly use the internet to research products
before purchasing in-store.
In 2009, online retail sales in Western Europe reached €68
billion (£61.8 billion); they are projected to grow to
€114 billion by 2014, according to the report. Whilst a
double-digit increase is to be expected in European countries
whose ecommerce market is immature, established markets such as
the UK and Germany are still seeing strong growth figures due to
“the strong online value proposition”. Europeans
spent an annual average of €483 (£439) per person in
2009, and this amount will grow to €601 (£546) in
2014. With more than half of its consumers shopping online, the
UK is the largest online retail market in Western Europe-UK
online retail sales will rise to almost €40 billion
(£36.3 billion) by 2014.
The report found that the UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the
Netherlands, and Sweden account for 85 percent of total online
sales for Western Europe. “There is a clear divide between
the countries of Northern and Southern Europe regarding online
retail adoption,” said Forrester Research vice president
and research director Patti Freeman Evans in a statement.
“While nearly half of UK residents regularly make a
purchase online, a mere 10 percent of online Spaniards and 11
percent of online Italians do so today.”
Among other notable findings is that the UK, the Netherlands, and
Spain show the highest credit-card penetration, whereas France
and Italy have relatively low ownership rates and Dutch and
German online consumers prefer paying by online banking
transfers. PayPal is becoming more popular as a preferred payment
method. According to Forrester, half of UK online users used this
method to pay for goods online in the past three months.
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