Fears of a mass exodus from subscription services when new cancellation rules come into force in January 2027 may be overstated, with a third (34 per cent) of UK adults who shop online expecting to continue using the same number of subscriptions, new research from international fulfilment and logistics provider Paxon has found.
The online YouGov research of over 2,000 UK adults aged 18+ years suggests that while some consumers who shop online plan to cut back, the largest proportion do not expect to change their subscription habits (34 per cent). A further 6 per cent expect to sign up to more subscriptions, while 3 per cent said they might start using subscriptions for the first time.
However, 14 per cent expect to use fewer subscriptions and 3 per cent say they may cancel them all, meaning subscription businesses still need to prepare for potential changes in recurring orders. Uncertainly also remains, with 15 per cent unsure how the new rules will affect their preferences.
The findings suggest retailers should avoid assuming the new rules will trigger widespread cancellations, while ensuring their demand forecasts account for customers who may reduce or change their orders.
Andrew Scanlon, head of sales & marketing at Paxon, said: “There has been a lot of concern about what easier cancellation will mean for subscription businesses, but our research suggests the picture may be more mixed. A third of consumers expect to continue using the same number of subscriptions, so retailers should not assume demand will fall across the board.
“That said, businesses need to be prepared for some customers to cut back. An active subscription does not guarantee a future order. Customers can skip deliveries, change their frequency or cancel, so retailers need to forecast from actual purchasing behaviour rather than rely too heavily on subscriber numbers.”
The research also found differences between age groups. Adults aged 18–24 were twice as likely as the average UK adult to say they expected to sign up to more subscription services, at 12 per cent compared with 6 per cent. This suggests retailers should consider how subscription demand may vary across customer groups when planning stock and fulfilment capacity.
Subscription changes are also taking place alongside shifts in how consumers discover and purchase products. Those who shop online and expect to buy less over next 12 months through retailer and brand websites were asked where they were most likely to shop for items previously bought directly through brand and retailer websites. 30 per centselected online marketplaces such as Amazon, eBay and Temu; mobile shopping apps were selected by 14 per cent, while 13 per cent chose search engine shopping features.
18 per cent of all UK adults said AI shopping assistants and social commerce platforms would reduce the number of retailer and brand websites they visit to make a purchase.
Scanlon said: “Subscription behaviour is one part of a wider forecasting challenge. Customers may buy through marketplaces, search tools or AI shopping assistants rather than visiting a retailer’s website directly. Retailers need a clear view of demand across these channels to ensure the right products are available when customers want them.
“That means bringing together subscription activity, actual order history, sales trends and planned marketing campaigns. With a realistic view of expected orders, fulfilment teams can make better decisions about inventory, warehouse capacity and delivery requirements.”
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